I have two conflicting thoughts about this Tory leadership contest. First, whoever wins will be up against such a completely useless Prime Minister, who commands neither respect nor affection, that victory in the next election is within reach.

Secondly, whoever wins has a huge job to restore credibility and make the public forget that sense of national relief when the Tories left office on July 4. Remember, it took them 13 long years to get back into power after Blair’s overwhelming rout in 1997.

I’m sorry that Tom Tugendhat has gone. He was the candidate that Keir Starmer would have least liked to face, and was the kind of Conservative that non-Tories find palatable, with a strong army background and a likeable manner. Of course, whether those non-Tories would actually vote for him is another kettle of fish. Anyway, it’s academic. He’s gone.

Of the remaining three, Kemi Badenoch has star appeal but shoots herself in the foot. James Cleverly is pugnacious, has momentum and offers the ability to reach out to all wings of the party – but lacks memorability. Robert Jenrick is politically ruthless (that’s not an insult) but might over-cook the Tory steak making it too tough a chew for most voters.

There is no stand-out candidate. And unlike when Boris resigned, there is nobody (I’m talking about Liz Truss) who I would beg Tory members not to select. Any of the three candidates could do the job or bomb. Any could expose Starmer for being useless or get overwhelmed by the pressures of the worst job in politics. Any could be our next prime minister, or be booted out, like Iain Duncan Smith, within two years.

If I had a vote, which I don’t, I’d go for Kemi. Star appeal counts for a lot and is a rare commodity in British public life. In the last 40 years, Blair and Boris had it. Thatcher only acquired it after reaching Number 10. Cameron got close, but never quite converted. Major, Brown, May and Sunak were all, let’s be frank, deficient. Truss was worse than useless.

If Kemi gets to the final two, she should win. That’s what recent polls of Tory members suggest. And they, for the moment, are the only people that count. But will she get there? She came a narrow third in the vote today, one behind a stalling Jenrick and nine behind a surging Cleverly, who looks nailed on to go forward to the members tomorrow.

What’s more, it’s in Cleverly’s interest to face Jenrick in the final vote, and get Kemi booted out. The boys might club together to deny the more impressive girl.

Well, I hope they don’t succeed. We need Kemi in the final two. But it’s nail-bitingly close.