Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin have decided the past two US presidential elections. Now these three states are once again at the center of campaigning for both parties.
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| Kamala Harris and her deputy Tim Walz campaigned in Milwaukee, Wisconsin on August 20. Photo: Milwaukee Journal Sentinel . |
As the Democratic convention gets underway in Chicago, three northern battleground states — Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — are attracting a flurry of campaigning from both Democrats and Republicans.
On August 20, Ms. Harris and her “deputy” Tim Walz temporarily left the Democratic convention to campaign in Milwaukee, the largest city in the battleground state of Wisconsin. This is Ms. Harris’s third visit to Wisconsin this month.
Also on August 20, Mr. Donald Trump went to the neighboring state of Michigan to campaign. He has also been to Pennsylvania twice since the beginning of the month.
Democratic leaders also regularly attend breakfast meetings of local party organizations in these “rust belt” states. On August 19, Mr. Walz made surprise appearances at meetings in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, the Guardian reported.
States that cannot be lost
In recent years, three Northern battleground states — with a combined 44 electoral votes — have been decisive in deciding the election.
These three states were Democratic strongholds before Mr. Trump emerged, attracting white working-class voters. In 2016, Mr. Trump won all three states by relatively small margins.
Four years later, President Joe Biden won the states back for the Democrats. However, voters’ preferences remain relatively erratic, making this year’s election results highly uncertain.
Recent polls from the New York Times-Siena College, FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics have generally shown Ms. Harris outperforming Mr. Biden, but the margins between her and Mr. Trump are so small that they are meaningless given the margin of error.
Polls also underestimated Trump’s influence in these battleground states in 2016. In Wisconsin alone, the last six presidential elections have been by less than one percentage point.
Still, Ms. Harris has one powerful weapon: the enthusiasm of American voters after she replaced Mr. Biden to become the Democratic Party’s nominee.
Wisconsin Democratic Party Chairman Ben Wikler said they were seeing negative trends in “every metric we can track.” In Wisconsin — where Biden beat Trump by only about 20,000 votes in 2020 — more than 40,000 people have signed up to volunteer for the Democratic Party since Harris entered the race.
“The number of people who have registered since Kamala Harris became the candidate is greater than the difference between 2016 and 2020. Spirits are high everywhere in the state,” he said.
Still, Mr. Wikler acknowledged that the challenge will be turning enthusiasm into votes, a problem Democrats are also struggling with in many other Rust Belt states.
“There are millions of people who are just now watching this election. They are the ones who may be on the sidelines on Election Day. The key will be to engage directly with them.”
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| Ms. Harris speaks at the Democratic convention on August 19. Photo: Facebook/Kamala Harris. |
Turn excitement into votes
Half of Wisconsin’s population lives in communities with fewer than 15,000 residents. To reach this group of voters, the Wisconsin Democratic Party has established a network of community-based groups.
Abortion rights are expected to be a major issue for Wisconsin voters. Polls show it is the top issue for 15 percent of voters in the state — and 30 percent of Democrats in particular.
For Mr. Wikler, this is not a surprise. In 2022-2023, Wisconsin experienced 451 days of near-total abortion bans after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.
In Pennsylvania, local Democratic leaders are also looking for ways to keep voters motivated through the November election. Morgan Overton, vice chair of the Allegheny County Democratic Party — which includes Pittsburgh and surrounding areas — said it’s a question she spends a lot of time asking.
In Michigan, where Mr. Biden won by about 154,000 votes in 2020, 60,000 people have registered since Ms. Harris entered the race. The Michigan Democratic Party is trying to get as many people as possible to vote in Detroit and Flint — two party strongholds in the state. They also want to expand their influence in rural areas.
But the challenge for Democrats in Michigan is that many Arabs in the state are disillusioned with the Biden administration’s policy on the Israel-Hamas conflict. Michigan has one of the largest concentrations of Arab Americans, and more than 100,000 voted “uncommitted” in the Democratic primary in February.
Michigan Lieutenant Governor Garlin Gilchrist said the new economic approach announced by Ms. Harris’s team will be well received by voters in the state.
“We’re going to lower the price of goods, we’re going to make medicine more affordable, we’re going to help you buy a home — that’s what people need to hear. It’s a message of, ‘We’re here for you,’” Gilchrist said.
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