Keir Starmer faces a full in-tray when parliament returns from recess on Monday with a packed legislative agenda, and more doom and gloom over Labour’s tough economic inheritance as he lays the groundwork for the budget.
But he faces unease in the Labour ranks over some of the decisions the government has made as a result, including on winter fuel duty and the two-child benefit cap, as well as more broadly on the lack of hope being offered to voters.
The prime minister has several opportunities in the coming weeks to show there are still reasons for optimism, and that while tax rises and spending cuts may be on the cards, his plans go further than dealing with economic challenges, with opportunities for radical change also ahead.
He addresses the TUC union federation’s congress next week, where he is expected to talk up Labour’s workers’ rights plans, while the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, will focus on growth as a counter to what is expected to be a grim budget on 30 October.
There will also be a chance for both to be more upbeat about the country’s future at Labour’s first party conference since its landslide election victory in Liverpool at the end of the month, with MPs in the mood to celebrate.
The result of the US presidential election on 5 November will also be a pivotal moment globally, with a Donald Trump victory no longer a certainty after an energised Kamala Harris’s entrance into the race for the White House. But first, Starmer has to deal with issues closer to home.