Conservative constituencies are more than twice as likely to face a shortage of places for pupils in state schools under Labour’s VAT raid on private schools, research has found.

Just 5.5 per cent of Labour-held constituencies in England are at risk of local state secondaries being unable to cope with an influx of private school pupils, according to an analysis of House of Commons data commissioned by the Conservative Party.

This more than doubles to 12.1 per cent of all Tory seats. The Liberal Democrats could be the hardest-hit of all, with one in five of their 65 English constituencies potentially overrun with private school leavers – almost four times more than Labour.

Damian Hinds, the shadow education secretary, warned that Labour’s private school VAT raid was “wrong and rushed, and already damaging education across the country”.

He added: “It is clear that there are parts of the country where there is simply not the capacity in the state sector to absorb pupils from independent schools.”

Baines Cutler, an education consultancy for the Independent Schools Council (ISC), previously estimated that within five years of 20 per cent VAT being imposed on fees, one quarter (25.4 per cent) of independently schooled pupils would be forced to drop out.

Godalming and Ash, held by Jeremy Hunt, the shadow chancellor, would be the worst affected Tory seat in this scenario.

The report shows the area currently has 3,544 pupils in fee-paying schools, and just 319 unfilled placed in state secondaries. Just one quarter transferring would result in a shortage of 581 places.

A total of 14 Conservative constituencies, and 19 Labour ones, would be thrust into a similarly difficult position. However, with Labour winning three times as many seats in July, the proportion impacted is much lower.

Government ranks spared

The findings suggest the fallout from the policy will be disproportionately felt by constituents represented by Tory and Lib Dem MPs, with the Government’s own ranks largely spared.

Conservative and Lib Dem MPs are more likely to represent relatively affluent areas where more parents enrol their children in independent schools.

House of Commons data show there to be an average of 530 private pupils in current Labour seats, relative to 729 in Conservative and 1,194 in Lib Dem ones.

School catchment areas are also not confined to electoral boundaries, so the reality faced by families is likely to be different.

Mr Hinds warned that the Government has “serious questions to answer” about the impact of its policy.

He added that the lack of an impact assessment “with less than three months to go until the education tax is introduced show at best they do not know, and at worst they do not care about its impact”.

Last week it emerged that private schools are drawing up plans to launch a legal challenge against VAT on school fees.

The ISC, which represents more than 1,400 private schools across the UK, will seek to prove that Labour’s policy undermines some pupils’ human rights under the European Convention of Human Rights and the Human Rights Act 1998.

It will hold a snap vote with seven of its constituent private school associations on whether to go forward with action in the High Court, but only once it has seen further details of the Government’s VAT legislation on Budget day.

Call to delay VAT change

Private schools also want ministers to push back the implementation of the VAT policy from Jan 1 2025 to September next year. It follows widespread criticism when the Government announced in July it had accelerated its VAT plans, and that they would now come into effect in the middle of a school year.

There were a total of 465,262 unfilled places in state secondary schools in England during the 2022/23 academic year, 11.5 per cent of the total, according to the Department for Education. Just 352,930 teenagers, on the other hand, were enrolled in private institutions.

These figures suggest one quarter could all, as a result, easily be accommodated within the state system – if only they were spread perfectly evenly across the country.

The presence of private school hotspots and dearths make the problem acute in particular areas.

A government spokesman said: “We want to ensure all children have the best chance in life to succeed. Ending tax breaks on private schools will help to raise the revenue needed to fund our education priorities for next year, such as recruiting 6,500 new teachers.”