Wales‘ political scene is set for a seismic shift as new analysis suggests Reform UK could secure up to 17 seats in the Senedd (Welsh Parliament) at the next election, an analysis showed.

This projection by Wales Online is based on an analysis of Wales’ 2024 Westminster General Election results, which saw Reform emerge as a significant political force, despite winning no parliamentary seats.

Senedd, which uses a proportional representation voting system, offers Reform a clearer path to success than Westminster’s First Past the Post (FPTP) system.

In the 2024 General Election, Reform won 223,018 votes across Wales, making them the third biggest party by vote share, but failed to secure any MPs.

Notably, Reform candidates finished second in 13 Welsh constituencies.

Under the more representative voting system used for Senedd elections, Reform is projected to gain significant ground, with their seat count potentially soaring from zero to 17 in the 2026 election – overtaking the Conservatives

It would see Reform UK close in on the two largest parties, Labour and Plaid Cymru.

The projections spell trouble for Welsh Labour, who have dominated politics in the country since 1999.

Labour currently holds half of the 60 seats in the Senedd, but analysis by Wales Online suggests that their share could drop to just 40%—their lowest level since devolution.

Labour’s dominance over health, education, and other devolved powers for the past 25 years has come under increasing scrutiny, with critics pointing to longer NHS waiting lists and lower school attainment in Wales compared to England.

Labour’s challenges are compounded by growing discontent over recent policies, such as the controversial 20mph speed limit law, and the fallout from Vaughan Gething’s brief but turbulent 78-day premiership earlier this year.

The Gething administration was rocked by allegations of dodgy donations, leading to his resignation and exacerbating divisions within Labour.

These factors, combined with Reform’s rise, have eroded the party’s once-ironclad grip on Welsh politics.

Speaking in September, Reform leader Nigel Farage said: “There’s no question about it, Reform is a serious contender in those Welsh elections in two years.”

With Labour projected to lose overall control of the Senedd, a coalition government would likely be needed to govern Wales after 2026.

Historically, Labour has turned to Plaid Cymru to form governing coalitions.

However, relations between the two parties have soured since May 2024, when Plaid pulled out of a coalition over the Gething donations scandal.

With Plaid Cymru, the Conservatives, and Reform unlikely to join forces, Labour could find itself running a fragile minority government.

Recent changes expanding the Senedd to 96 members and moving to a more proportional voting system were initially seen as benefiting Labour by diluting Conservative influence.

However, this proportional system now appears to have opened the door for Reform, allowing them to convert their significant vote share into parliamentary seats