Every new government has a choice to make. A decision to be made quickly. Now we are in power, what kind of narrative do we want? What early actions will best represent that? Because, ultimately, politics is a story, not a spreadsheet.
Re-elections are not won by fiscal rules. They are won, and lost, by perception as well as reality. Do I feel like my life is better now than before? Who do I think might improve things a little next time?
The humdrum of political noise in Westminster may be exciting for some, but for the vast majority of people it holds practically no interest whatsoever. Few people expect much good to come from politics, and most are more inclined to believe that whoever is in office is likely to make things worse.
That’s why nothing is as straightforward as it seems. Things change quickly – perhaps more quickly now than ever before, in terms of modern politics. One minute a mighty majority is won, the next it can feel like your head is on the block.
First steps are critical and about-turns absolutely necessary. Dying in an early ditch for policies most people hate is not only silly politics, but it can also set the public mood. This is particularly so, when the decision you are defending delivers so little towards whatever plan you have and is instead seen as punitive.
Labour’s decision to cut winter fuel payments is one such policy. It is particularly important because it relates so deeply to the story of this new government. Targeting everyday people without much money is cruel, not tough.
Most people will forgive you for making a mistake. We all make them, after all. But doubling down? Refusing to change tack? Many will be less impressed by that.
It comes back to what you are trying to do, and what you are trying to say about that. The decision to look tough against the backdrop of an entirely inherited fiscal mess may be tempting. But it’s not going to resonate with communities still impacted by austerity, and workers dealing with falling living standards and threats to jobs. It’s the wrong story, at the wrong time.
Don’t give out warm words in place of action. Workers at Grangemouth facing job losses don’t need pity, they need a plan for real jobs, and that requires real investment of real money. Commitments to net zero will have to be backed by cold, hard cash to create real jobs. We cannot have a jobless transition to net zero.
If there is no money on the table, it is not believable that anything positive is about to happen. Without serious investment, way above the levels being discussed now, Britain will continue to decline. If you want growth, you going to have to jump-start it. Our infrastructure is broken, and our public services are fractured.
People need hope, not just doom and gloom. Nobody expected socialism, but some of us do expect some social democratic challenges to the current inequalities of wealth and power. Otherwise, what is the point?
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And here’s the thing: When you promise change, you do have to deliver some of it. A return to a new form of austerity, mixed with a bleak picture of what is to come, will do no more than provide ammunition for right-wing populism. The choice to cut, if made, will further erode people’s trust in politics. Promised change, given more of the same.
People want a fair deal. They want a bright future. They want the super-rich to pay more tax and they want the masters of mega profits to contribute to the society which they have plundered. That’s not “fantasy”, just a desire to confront inequality.
While this government may feel caught between a rock and a hard place, it is better to die on your feet than live on your knees. Don’t get suffocated by rules made by others. There’s no shame in making mistakes. But it’s time to turn the page. It’s time to tell a different story. Labour’s conference this weekend can start that.
