MPs are set to vote on Labour’s disability benefit cuts without any idea of how many of those affected will be able to find work, after it emerged that Britain’s economic watchdog may not publish its forecast of the employment impact of the plans until the end of October.
The Department for Work and Pensions’ own impact assessment last week predicted that the cuts announced in the disability benefits green paper would drive at least 300,000 people into poverty, including 50,000 children.
Ministers argue that those hit by the plans – which restrict eligibility for personal independence payment (Pip) and slash the health element of universal credit for new claimants – could avoid poverty by finding work, helped by a £1bn disability employment support package that was announced alongside the benefit cuts.
However, the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) was unable to say how effective those employment support measures would be when it published its assessment of the green paper last week, citing a lack of policy or analysis detail from the government and insufficient time.
Instead, the OBR plans to include an assessment of the labour market impact of the green paper in its autumn forecast – which last year was published on 30 October.
That is likely to come long after MPs have voted on the major benefit cuts. The government intends to bring primary legislation in the current parliamentary session, which is expected to end in July. This legislation would allow the cuts to take effect in 2026-27.
“To force through policy change without a full analysis is not only poor governance, but does not seek to assess whether a policy would be effective,” said Labour MP Rachael Maskell, an opponent of the cuts.
“No government should make such decisions when the stakes are so high for disabled people. I cannot see how any MP could vote for such policies without having the evidence to back up their decision.”
Fellow Labour MP Neil Duncan-Jordan added: “I have asked in the chamber and in written questions as to the number of people to be helped back into work, the programmes that will be put in place to achieve that, and how much each will receive from the £1bn fund that has been set aside. The answer given is that ‘further analysis to support development of the proposals in the green paper will be developed and undertaken in the coming months’.
“This certainly means that MPs are likely to be asked to vote on changes to disability benefits before knowing the full impact of the changes. I’m not sure that’s a good way to make decisions, and it’s likely to cause colleagues even more sleepless nights.”
The OBR forecast that 3% of those affected by the last government’s now-abandoned plans to restrict disability benefit would find paid work.
“The lack of detail means [MPs] may well be voting for these measures, because of the pressure put on them by the three-line whip system, without realising the consequences in terms of life-changing cuts and ultimately a rise in benefit related deaths,” said Mark Harrison of Disabled People Against Cuts.
There will be no formal public consultation on the main cuts themselves, although the government is consulting on “transitional” protection for those hit by the Pip cuts.
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There are suggestions that avoiding public consultations and using primary legislation are ways for the government to minimise the risk of legal challenges. The last government’s consultation on its planned disability benefit cuts was ruled unlawful earlier this year after a judicial review.
“Parliamentarians must ensure they properly scrutinise the details of any draft bill,” said Victoria Pogge von Strandmann, legal director of Public Law Project, which helped bring the judicial review. “We consider that MPs would be in a much better position to do this if they had the benefit of the output of a comprehensive consultation process, which sought views of those deaf and disabled people who will be directly impacted.”
A Department for Work and Pensions spokesperson said: “The broken social security system we inherited is failing people who can work, as well as the people it’s meant to be there for.
That’s why we are delivering a £1bn support offer to guarantee tailored help into work to break down barriers for disabled people. We are also rebalancing universal credit payment levels, so the benefit’s main rate rises above inflation for the first time in a boost for low income working families.
“We will continue to deliver a social security system for those with severe health conditions, and we will protect the income of those who will never be able to work.”
