Chancellor Rachel Reeves struggled to make her sums add up in last week’s Budget. Now President Donald Trump is about to blow her tax and spending plans away.
The UK stock market spiked yesterday morning when it became clear that Trump had won a landslide. Sadly, the fun didn’t last.
Trump plans to turbo-charge the US economy by slashing corporate tax to just 15% and building a bonfire of red tape.
That’s the exact opposite of what Labour has just done. Reeves piled £25billion of national insurance onto employers, in a move that will squeeze jobs, wages and growth.
If the US economy accelerates while the UK is stuck at stall speed, Reeves’ tax and spend splurge will look even more ruinous. And it gets worse.
In the Budget, Reeves hiked windfall taxes on UK oil producers to a maximum of 78% until 2030. She also closed tax loopholes that reduced the burden.
Oil industry bosses accusing her of imposing a “super tax” on windfall profits that no longer exist as the oil price plunges from $125 a barrel to around $70.
This is a blow for BP and Shell, and smaller North Sea oil producers. It will look even worse when Trump gets going.
He’s going to ramp up oil drilling from day one. US consumers will get cheap gas and power, while we’ll be even more dependent on fossil fuel imports and unreliable renewables.
If the US gets cheap gas and we get power cuts, Labour will carry the can.
President Donald Trump’s economic plans spell trouble for the UK economy
Labour plans to borrow an extra £32billion a year to boost state spending, which will drive up inflation.
Government borrowing costs have climbed to Liz Truss levels of almosts 4.6%, as bond investors demand more interest for buying risky UK gilts.
With Reeves planning to borrow a staggering £300billion this financial year alone, we’ll pay billions in extra interest.
Trump looks set to drive inflation even higher by slashing taxes, slapping tariffs on imports and curbing immigration, which will drive up wages.
That inflationary surge will hit us, too. So we’ll pay even more for our debt.
The Bank of England is expected to cut rates today, but this could be the last for some time.
The cost-of-living crisis isn’t over and this time, Labour can’t blame the Tories. And they daren’t blame Trump.
There’s another threat. Trump has made it clear he’s sick of European countries – including the UK – relying on the US military while failing to invest in their own defence.
Labour did pledge to hike defence spending to 2.5% of GDP, but is now backtracking, as on so much else.
If Trump demands NATO allies lift that to 3%, where will Labour find the money? Reeves can’t borrow still more after last week’s Budget.
This will test our support for Ukraine to the max, as well as our special relationship with the US.
Finally, Starmer made a big noise about boosting UK economic growth, but Labour’s plans could unravel if Trump slaps swingeing new tariffs on global imports.
UK growth will halve if Trump acts on his threats, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research has warned. This would lead to weaker economic activity, rising inflation and higher interest.
That would be the final nail in the coffin of Labour’s Budget. Let’s hope Labour can talk Trump out of it. Maybe they could ask Foreign Secretary David Lammy to use his charm.
This won’t just be a disaster for Labour, it’ll be a nightmare for the rest of us, too. Whatever your view of Trump, he won’t give us an easy ride. He doesn’t owe Labour anything.