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Is Scotland Heading for Austerity? What Do the £500m Spending Cuts Mean for the Public?H

Scottish government announces spending cuts worth £500m

The Scottish government will have to make cuts worth £500m, Shona Robison, the finance secretary has said.

As PA Media reports, outlining the levels of savings, Robison said £188m will be found across government, including by cutting active travel funding, £65m by re-purposing cash from other projects and around £60m through already announced spending controls.

Up to £460m from the ScotWind leasing round will also be used, Robison said, in the hopes it won’t all required to be spent.

Robison warned of further tough decisions, saying:

As we look ahead, it is clear that further significant action will be needed to reset the public finances onto a sustainable path.

The chancellor has made clear that UK government funding will continue to be tightly constrained. The prime minister has also made clear the difficult decisions to come.

Robison also said the current financial situation facing the Scottish government was “not sustainable”. She said:

If the Scottish government does not act, spending will continue to outstrip available funding.

This is not sustainable and tough decisions will be required.

Annual savings alone will not address this. All members of parliament must face up to this challenge in the demands they make during the budget process.

The Scottish government’s total budget for 2024-25 is about £60bn.

Shona Robison stands behind a yellow SNP lectern

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Afternoon summary

Shona Robison photographed today ahead of making her statement to MSPs about the Scottish government’s budget cuts. Photograph: Andrew Milligan/PA

And this is from Liz Smith MSP, the Scottish Conservatives’ finance spokesperson.

The Scottish Fiscal Commission is clear that, had the Scottish economy grown at the same rate as the UK economy in the last decade, the SNP would have had £624m more to spend. Had that happened many of today’s swingeing cuts wouldn’t be necessary….

— Liz Smith CBE MSP (@mspliz) September 3, 2024

The Scottish Fiscal Commission is clear that, had the Scottish economy grown at the same rate as the UK economy in the last decade, the SNP would have had £624m more to spend. Had that happened many of today’s swingeing cuts wouldn’t be necessary….

The Scottish Greens have criticised the spending cuts announced by the SNP government in Edinburgh. The Greens’ finance spokesperson, Ross Greer, said:

This is a disaster for our climate.

The SNP have chosen to slash spending on climate action and increase costs for commuters.

With global temperatures rising, Scotland must be a climate leader but the SNP is taking us backwards.

Even bookmakers are struggling to agree on what is happening in the Tory leadership contest. Two betting companies have issued press releases about their latest odds today and, while they both agree that Kemi Badenoch is either favourite (Coral, which has her 7-4) or joint favourite (William Hill, which has her and Robert Jenrick both on 7-4), they have different views on who has the momentum.

Coral says:

Kemi Badenoch is the clear favourite to become the next Conservative leader and she is attracting one-way traffic in our betting to replace Rishi Sunak in November.

But William Hill says:

Kemi Badenoch and James Cleverly are the latest names to throw their hats into the ring in a bid to become the next leader of the Tory party, but judging by our betting markets, their leadership campaigns got off to a poor start.

Both Badenoch and Cleverly have drifted in the market since launching their campaigns yesterday, and while they still occupy two of the top three spots in the market, it’s Robert Jenrick that is in the ascendency, moving into 7/4 from 9/4 to now share favouritism with Badenoch.

The two firms both agree that, after Badenoch and Jenrick, the other four candidates are ranked, in terms of chances of winning: Cleverly, Tom Tugendhat, Priti Patel and Mel Stride.

Scottish government ‘isn’t blameless’ in relation to its funding problems, says IFS thinktank

The Institute for Fiscal Studies has published an assessment of the spending cuts announcement from the Scottish government today. It is by David Phillips, the IFS’s associate director. Here are the main parts.

On what has been announced

Scottish finance minister Shona Robison has today announced in-year spending cuts of up to £500m in order to fund public sector pay deals and other inflationary pressures hitting the Scottish budget. This includes restrictions on recruitment, overtime, travel and marketing across the Scottish government. Peak-time rail tickets will be re-introduced, and cuts made to budgets that were intended to encourage cycling and walking. Cuts will also be made to budgets for NHS training, mental health, and health and social care transformation as part of £116m of cuts to non-pay elements of the health and social care budget. Ms Robison also plans to draw down up to £460m of unspent income from offshore windfarm licenses – although hopes further savings may make this unnecessary, so the funds remain available for future years. If this one-off funding is needed then further cuts may need to be made next year.

On the extent to which Westminster is to blame

The Scottish finance minister tries to pin the blame for these difficult decisions on Westminster and a lack of fiscal flexibility under Scotland’s current fiscal framework. It is true that even with the top-ups to funding announced by the new chancellor Rachel Reeves alongside her recent spending audit, UK government funding this year is still very tight: Ms Reeves’ plans imply departments and devolved governments having to find one-third of the additional cost of this year’s pay deals, over and above what had already been budgeted, from within existing budgets, for example. And as we have highlighted before, there is a case for giving the Scottish government some additional borrowing powers to address in-year public service spending pressures, as well as the benefit spending pressures and tax shortfalls that it can already borrow for. The Scottish government has far fewer options to address pressures than the UK government.

On the extent to which the SNP is to blame

But the Scottish government isn’t blameless here. It was already clear at the start of the year that things were going to be financially challenging, with public sector pay deals of 2 – 3% likely insufficient to avoid industrial action. The Scottish government could have held back funding to help meet additional pay and other cost pressures, rather than be forced to make in-year cuts to other spending. A decision to freeze council tax also cost almost double the amount raised from increases in income tax rates on higher earners. Tax policy decisions therefore reduced rather than raised revenues, increasing the pressure on Scotland’s public finances.

As the Scottish Fiscal Commission has highlighted, the last few years have seen the Scottish government increase public sector pay, and roll out new, more generous social security benefits. These are legitimate things to prioritise. But they do reduce the amount available for other areas of spending and add to budgetary pressures. Previous pay increases, which were more generous than in England, also mean higher pay levels – increasing the cost of further increases.

On what lies ahead

More difficult decisions are likely next year and beyond given the different fiscal outlook. The Scottish government should use its forthcoming budget and subsequent Scottish Spending Review to be clear about priorities – and which areas will see cuts – in order to reduce the need for in-year cuts, which are often more damaging.

Tugendhat says voters no longer take Conservative party seriously

Here is Jessica Elgot’s report from Tom Tugendhat’s Tory leadership campaign launch this morning. She says he declared that people will “never vote for a party that they’ve stopped taking seriously”.

Tom Tugendhat campaign merchandise available at his campaign launch at the Royal Horseguards Hotel in Whitehall this morning.
Tom Tugendhat campaign merchandise available at his campaign launch at the Royal Horseguards Hotel in Whitehall this morning. Photograph: Jonathan Brady/PA

The Scottish Labour party has said that SNP incompetence is primarily to blame for the cuts being announced today by the Scottish government. (See 3.25pm.) Michael Marra, Scottish Labour’s finance spokesperson, said:

After 17 years in power, the SNP is still insisting ‘it wasn’t us’. It’s the same script again and again.

All of the independent experts – the Fraser of Allander Institute, the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Audit Scotland, the Scottish Fiscal Commission – are absolutely clear that these SNP cuts stem from their incompetence.

This incompetent and wasteful SNP government has lost its way and is mismanaging public money.

This culture of always blaming someone else comes with a cost meted out in jobs and service cuts – when we have the longest NHS waiting lists in history and attainment is dropping in our schools.

Scots are left paying more and getting less and today’s statement guarantees that this cycle of short-term sticking plaster politics will run and run.

Robison: why Scottish government’s spending cuts are needed

The Scottish government has set out its proposed cuts in a letter from Shona Robison, the finance secretary, to the Scottish parliament’s finance and public adminstration committee. It’s here.

This is what she says about why savings are needed.

In the 2023 medium-term financial strategy, I updated parliament on the challenges we face over the medium-term, the forecast gap between funding and spending, and our fiscal strategy for managing the public finances. This required tough and decisive action through the 2024-25 Scottish budget to improve the underlying sustainability of our public finances.

Since then, pressures on public finances have further grown, and I have had to take difficult decisions to remain on track to balance the Scottish government’s budget.

Pay continues to be a significant driver of in-year pressures, with potential costs of up to £0.8bn beyond our budget in this financial year alone. Whilst I welcome the UK government’s acceptance of the pay review body recommendations, as the Scottish Fiscal Commission note in their fiscal update published on 27 August, we face significant uncertainty over funding that we will receive from the UK government ahead of the UK Budget.

With a relatively larger public sector in Scotland, meeting the cost of pay deals above our budget assumptions place considerable strain on our finances. The UK government have announced that the upcoming budget will be “painful”, with the chancellor making clear that UK government funding will be tightly constrained, placing further uncertainty over the funding we will receive. I have made it clear that austerity is not the answer; that public services must be protected, and that investment is critical for growth.

Alongside pay, other costs have emerged that are more difficult to plan for but must be funded, such as in demand-led activities like legal aid, police and fire pensions and the costs of accommodation for Ukrainian displaced people. Like the rest of the UK, we also continue to face a significant health and social care backlog arising from the Covid-19 pandemic and a further surge in Covid and respiratory cases.

In her statement at Holyrood, Shona Robison, the Scottish government’s finance secretary, also urged MSPs from all parties to “work together” to address the budget problems the country was facing. She said:

We will continue to be a fiscally responsible government and balance the budget each year – as we have done every year for 17 years and we will do again this year,” she told MSPs.

But this will mean we must unfortunately take difficult decisions along the way.

I believe we can all agree on the importance of putting the public first in all that we do.

I am calling on members across the chamber to work together to navigate the challenges ahead, in the best interests of all the people that we have the privilege to serve.

Shona Robison suggests Scottish government won’t raise income tax to remove need for budget cuts

In her statement to MSPs, Shona Robison, the Scottish government’s finance secretary, suggested she will not be using the powers she has under devolution to increase income tax to remove the need for cuts. She said:

On the application of taxation we can only go so far, given the scope of our devolved tax powers.

Raising significant further revenue would require substantial reform to the tax system or further devolution of powers.

These will take time and rely on the UK government. It is therefore essential that we aim to grow the economy and the tax base to support a sustained flow of revenues over time.

The Scottish government is due to announce its budget on 4 December. It has significant powers to vary income tax rates, and in Scotland there are now five different income tax rates, compared with three in the rest of the UK. The Scottish system is more progressive.

Scottish government announces spending cuts worth £500m

The Scottish government will have to make cuts worth £500m, Shona Robison, the finance secretary has said.

As PA Media reports, outlining the levels of savings, Robison said £188m will be found across government, including by cutting active travel funding, £65m by re-purposing cash from other projects and around £60m through already announced spending controls.

Up to £460m from the ScotWind leasing round will also be used, Robison said, in the hopes it won’t all required to be spent.

Robison warned of further tough decisions, saying:

As we look ahead, it is clear that further significant action will be needed to reset the public finances onto a sustainable path.

The chancellor has made clear that UK government funding will continue to be tightly constrained. The prime minister has also made clear the difficult decisions to come.

Robison also said the current financial situation facing the Scottish government was “not sustainable”. She said:

If the Scottish government does not act, spending will continue to outstrip available funding.

This is not sustainable and tough decisions will be required.

Annual savings alone will not address this. All members of parliament must face up to this challenge in the demands they make during the budget process.

The Scottish government’s total budget for 2024-25 is about £60bn.

Minister says EHC plan waiting time figures show special needs children ‘left in limbo far too long’

Sally Weale

Sally Weale

More than 5,000 children in England with special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) waited between one and two years for a local authority decision on their application for an education, health and care (EHC) plan to be completed, according to new figures released today.

A further 90 children had to wait for more than two years, despite there being a statutory requirement for local authorities to issue a plan within 20 weeks of a request or confirm a decision not to within 16 weeks.

The figures, published in a parliamentary written answer, reveal that 62% of decisions by local authorities on whether or not to issue an EHC plan took up to six months last year, 31% took between six months and a year, and 6% between one and two years.

An EHC plan is a legal document which sets out a child or young person’s special educational needs and the support they require. The figures were published ahead of three debates this week in the House of Commons on support for children with SEND.

The minister for school standards, Catherine McKinnell, said:

These figures show that children with special educational needs and disabilities and their families are often being left in limbo for far too long.

The system is creaking at the seams following years of neglect, and without action would only deteriorate further, given the growing number of families needing support.

We will work as quickly as possible to ensure there is more effective early identification and support to give every child the best start in life, including by providing new online training to early educators.

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