Inside final nine weeks of 2024 race: What the Trump and Harris campaigns will focus on with 63 days until election day_l
It’s now a several week sprint to November’s election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris‘ and the campaigns are zeroing in on strategies they think will take them through to the end with a victory.
Both candidates are, justifiably so, devoting nearly all the remaining time and resources toward campaigning in just seven states.
Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are the battleground swing states that will ultimately determine whether it’s Trump or Harris who will be inaugurated in January.
With just over two months until Election Day in a race that was turned on its head at the end of July, Harris has been able to pull ahead in polling while Trump remains the favorite to handle some of the largest voting issues for Americans this year.
‘As we move past Labor Day, we will really get into the time where voters start to harden their opinions,’ Trump campaign political director James Blair said. ‘We feel pretty good about things. We feel energized. Our people are energized. But there’s certainly plenty of work to be done.’
Meanwhile, Harris’ campaign is painting their candidates as an ‘underdog’ in the race.
with only two months left until Election Day, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are barnstorming battleground swing states
FIRST TRUMP V. HARRIS DEBATE
The two candidates will debate in just one week on September 10 in Philadelphia in their first head-to-head after the vice president officially became her party’s nominee at the Democratic National Convention last month.
Trump’s debate with Joe Biden in June was ultimately what put the nail in the coffin for the president’s reelection chances after his poor performance led to a chorus of calls for him to step aside.
Harris’ campaign released a memo on Sunday casting their candidate as ‘the clear underdog.’
‘Donald Trump has a motivated base of support, with more support and higher favorability than he has had at any point since 2020,’ the memo notes.
‘In just a few short days, Vice President Harris will face Trump on the debate stage, where we expect him to be a formidable opponent. In 2020, the election came down to about 40,000 votes across the battleground states. This November, we anticipate margins to be similarly razor-thin.’
Former Democratic Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard is helping Trump prepare for a debate with a candidate she faced twice in the 2020 presidential primary.
She warned Trump not to ‘underestimate’ Harris on the stage next week.
‘I think Kamala Harris has a lot of experience. She is not to be underestimated,’ Gabbard told CNN host Dana Bash during an interview on State of the Union on Sunday morning.
‘If I can be helpful to President Trump in any way it really is just in sharing the experience that I had with her on that debate stage in 2020,’ she added.
Former Trump Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross also told Trump to come across as too ‘strong’ against his rival.
‘The only danger is Trump being big and strong and a man,’ he said during an interview on The Cats Roundtable radio show on Sunday.
Ross continued: ‘He has to be careful not to be seen as piling on a woman. People don’t like to see a woman pushed too hard.’
Harris’ senior adviser David Plouffe acknowledged in an interview: ‘There’s not a scenario here that’s easy. The pathway to beating Donald Trump, the pathway to 270 electoral votes for Kamala Harris, is exceedingly hard, but doable. And that’s just a reality.’
Democrats’ Sunday memo notes: ‘Elections are a choice, and the choice between turning the page toward the future with Vice President Harris or going backwards with Trump will be on full display at the September 10 presidential debate.’
The first debate between Trump and Harris is set for September 10 in Philadelphia. Trump’s debate with Joe Biden in June (pictured) was ultimately what sunk his reelection bid and led to calls for him to drop out
THE SWING STATE STRATEGY
There is little point in either Trump or Harris campaigning outside of the seven swing states vital to clinching a victory in November – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
In 2016, all the states voted red with the exception of Nevada. And in 2020 all flipped blue to join Nevada except for North Carolina.
There are 93 Electoral College votes up for grabs in the seven battlegrounds.
Read More
Billionaire Mark Cuban sends poll to parents asking if Trump or Kamala is a better role model
Harris and Trump, as well as their running mates Minnesota Gov. Tim Wlaz and Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, are barnstorming these states as they continue to make the case for their election.
Independent and undecided voters in the seven swing states are the most important for the campaign to target.
The Democrat’s weekend memo said all money raised now is ‘going directly to a relentless battleground operation.’
Harris’ team notes that they now boast more than 312 offices and 2,000 staff in just these seven states as ‘a reflection of a campaign with presences in every corner of every battleground state and with the communities critical to victory.’
As far as their schedule this week, Trump is doing a town hall in Pennsylvania on Wednesday with Fox News host Sean Hannity and Vance will be in Phoenix, Arizona on Thursday. Trump is also joining the Republican Jewish Coalition for remarks in Las Vegas, Nevada this week.
On Saturday, Trump will rally in Mosinee, Wisconsin.
To mark Labor day on Monday, Harris was in Detroit, Michigan and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania for two union and labor-related events.
In a break from the swing state strategy, Harris will head to New Hampshire on Wednesday.
POLL SHIFT AFTER HARRIS TOOK OVER FOR BIDEN
Trump and President Joe Biden were in a dead heat in most polling with Trump sometimes pulling ahead of his Democratic rival. But the advantage appears to have flipped after Harris entered the race this summer.
The latest national poll released on Tuesday puts Vice President Harris five points ahead of Trump.
With nine weeks until Election Day on November 5, Harris leads the ex-president 48 percent to 43 percent, according to the new post-Democratic National Convention survey from USA Today/Suffolk Poll.
And only one in 10 voters say they are either undecided or might change their mind.
The same polling in May, when Biden was still the Democratic candidate, had Trump and the president tied at 37 percent.
While Harris gets a slight advantage within some polls’ margin of error – for the most part the candidates remain neck-and-neck.
A new swing state poll shows Donald Trump and Kamala Harris both winning three states and being tied in one – resulting a dead heat between the two front runners
FiveThirtyEight tracks polling averages nationally and in all swing states. At the national level, Trump is behind Harris 44 percent to 47 percent.
But zeroing in on the swing states that matter most to this election, the divide is much smaller.
In Arizona, Trump and Harris are separated by only 0.2 percent and in Georgia another inconsequential divide at 0.4 percent.
There is a slightly wider gap in Michigan where Harris leads Trump by 2.3 percent and the VP is ahead in Pennsylvania by 1.2 percent, according to the average tracker.
Wisconsin boasts the largest Harris advantage with 3.2 percent.
Nevada and North Carolina lean more heavily blue and red, respectively, than the other swing states in the last few years.
Trump is ahead by 0.4 percent in North Carolina and Democrats are working extra hard to try and flip the state this year. In Nevada, Harris is ahead by 0.7 percent.
WHAT ARE OTHER POLITICIANS ADVISING?
Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign head is advising Harris to break from Biden’s policies if she wants to walk away with a win in November.
James Carville, who now consults with a Democratic Super PAC, penned a New York Times opinion essay on Tuesday publicly sharing with Harris that her biggest ‘political advantage’ is that the public has already made up their mind about Trump.
‘Trump’s approval rating has never much strayed from the mid- to low 40s for nearly a decade,’ he wrote. ‘No matter his divisive policies, Covid, the indictments, who his No. 2 was or whatever bile he spewed on social media, the jury of public opinion on Donald Trump is settled.’
He noted that Clinton won in 1992 with a ‘message of change versus more of the same’ and Barack Obama won in 2008 with the ‘audacity of hope.’
Even Trump, Carville noted, won in 2016 ‘on a blank promise to revive a relic of America.’
He concluded: ‘2024 will be won by who is fresh and who is rotten. It’s quite simple: The shepherd of tomorrow wins the sheep.’
Meanwhile, several Republicans, including some top surrogates, are pressing Trump to tone down his personal attacks on rivals and instead use the next few months to hone in his arguments for why his policies are superior.
South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham has been clear he prefers that strategy.
In a New York Times opinion essay published on Tuesday, he wrote: ‘The road to the White House runs through a vigorous policy debate, not an exchange of barbs.’
‘Trump has a long record of accomplishments on behalf of the American people,’ Graham continued. ‘The more he compares his successes with Ms. Harris’s failures, the more likely it is that he wins.’
Of the four Democratic presidential primary debates in 2020, Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (right) appeared on stage with Harris (left) during two. The now-independent former lawmaker is advising Trump ahead of his debate with Harris next week
FUNDRAISING AND CAMPAIGN SPENDING
Harris’ campaign says they have raised more than $540 million since she entered the race on July 21, which a massive sum that eclipses fundraising by Republicans.
Trump’s campaign committee raised $268.5 million in total between January 2023 and July 31, 2024, according to the most recently available Federal Election Commission filings.
Harris’ candidacy earned enough enthusiasm from donors to erase the cash advantage that Trump had at the end of June against Biden.
In terms of cash on hand, Harris ended July with $219.7 million to Trump’s $151.3 million.
But when other entities are taken into account, Trump regains his advantage.
The top 10 Super PACs supporting Trump raised $305.6 million since the beginning of 2024 while the top 10 supporting Harris, once Biden, raised $199.2 million in that same time period.
Trump is investing more advertising dollars in Pennsylvania than any other state from now through November 5 – highlighting the importance of that state in blocking Harris from earning the 270 electoral votes needed for victory.
