The US media has been buzzing with news that independent presidential candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. is expected to announce his decision to end his campaign at an event in Arizona on August 23 and endorse Republican candidate Donald Trump. So how will this move affect the two-horse race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris?

Trump’s team has more allies

Independent candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. intends to withdraw from the presidential race and support the Republican Party in exchange for a position in the upcoming administration if the party’s candidate, Donald Trump, wins. This has been reported by major US media, including The New York Times and CNBC.

Specifically, the final decision on this issue will be made at an event in Arizona on August 23 (local time). Previously, Robert Kennedy Jr.’s running mate Nicole Shanahan also announced her withdrawal from the upcoming election.

For his part, Republican candidate Donald Trump has expressed the possibility of considering Robert Kennedy Jr. for various positions in his future administration. Observers believe that if the Republican Party wins, Robert Kennedy Jr. could take on the position of attorney general in the new administration.

The decision of independent candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. to withdraw has received special attention from the media and political analysts. According to The New York Times, this is a surprising move; because Robert Kennedy Jr. has always considered himself a pure democrat, in the “father-to-son” style. His withdrawal from the election and support for and joining the Republican Party is truly a “shocking” action, creating a big echo in American politics. Meanwhile, many opinions say that this is a “compromise” of the nature of bargaining between the Republican Party and independent candidate Robert Kennedy. Republican candidate Donald Trump will receive a large number of voters who are supporters of Robert Kennedy; conversely, Robert Kennedy will have a good position in the new administration if the Republican Party wins.

In addition, some experts expressed skepticism that this move could help improve Mr. Trump’s ratings, as well as create a turning point for the US presidential election. According to Associate Professor Dmitry Novikov, an expert at the Moscow Higher School of Economics, “this will not have a big impact on support for Donald Trump and the Republican Party, because Robert Kennedy Jr. has been losing ground recently. He became popular at a time when incumbent President Joe Biden faced fierce opposition within the Democratic Party after an unconvincing debate performance. American voters understand that Robert Kennedy represents the older generation, and in fact he has skillfully used this aspect to win over voters. But the question is whether Robert Kennedy can turn this part of the electorate to support Donald Trump and the Republican Party.”

However, Dmitry Novikov believes that the appointment of Robert Kennedy Jr. to a position in the new administration could also have a positive impact on the former White House leader’s campaign. The reason is that Robert Kennedy Jr. is known primarily as an environmental lawyer and anti-vaccine activist. Recently, there have been rumors about him becoming Donald Trump’s environmental advisor. This is because Trump’s environmental issues are still limited. The Democratic Party criticizes Donald Trump as a proponent of unsustainable energy production methods, which makes some American voters lack confidence in his leadership and management abilities. Meanwhile, Robert Kennedy Jr., despite many controversies on other issues, has built a reputation as a strong advocate for the green economy. And Robert Kennedy Jr. joining Donald Trump’s team could change the former president’s image on environmental issues.

Good script is ahead

Trump’s approval ratings have begun to slip recently, especially after incumbent President Joe Biden withdrew from the race on July 21 and Vice President Kamala Harris was nominated as the Democratic nominee. The Economist poll predicts a victory for Harris, with 48% of the vote compared to Trump’s 44.9%.

However, observers have expressed skepticism about the results of recent polls, saying that they do not truly assess the state of American politics or the wishes of voters. Izvestia quoted American historian and former lecturer at Harvard University Vladimir Brovkin as saying: “The race is tight. Many people praise Ms. Harris’s views more than candidate Donald Trump’s. I don’t believe that. They said the same thing about Hillary Clinton before, but she lost to Mr. Trump. The race is really hot now and the odds are always 50/50.”

According to Vladimir Brovkin, the Democrats are trying to manipulate both domestic and foreign policy, trying to show the success of the Biden administration in all areas. “They say that inflation has decreased, Ms. Harris has said that prices will be reduced, drugs will be cheaper and apartments will be more affordable,” said expert Vladimir Brovkin.

Some have suggested that Donald Trump’s stagnant approval ratings stem from his choice of vice presidential candidate James David Vance, who could alienate a certain segment of voters. Konstantin Sukhoverkhov, director of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), said that Trump’s choice of vice presidential candidate was largely based on Republican ideas. For the Republicans, this choice was aimed at tapping into the support of voters in a number of “Rust Belt” states in the US Midwest, from New York to Wisconsin. However, given the modest performance of vice presidential candidate James David Vance, this may have been an unreasonable choice. “The question is whether choosing Mr. Vance as a vice presidential candidate will help Donald Trump’s team attract undecided voters, let alone attract Democratic voters,” Konstantin Sukhoverkhov stressed.

According to Dmitry Novikov, the Democrats’ choice of Vice President Kamala Harris as their candidate after Mr. Biden withdrew was a “breath of fresh air” that had a powerful effect. If Mr. Trump had relied on a woman or an African-American, he would have had a better chance of winning. “Vance is a candidate who is accepted and supported by Trump’s base. But he is the icon of the new generation of right-wing conservative intellectuals,” said expert Dmitry Novikov.

Recent polls by the US media show that Mr. Trump’s approval rating has not decreased but only stopped, while the Democratic Party has recorded a significant increase after “changing horses in the middle of the road”. Mr. Trump received a 46 – 48% approval rating, almost unchanged and a huge difference. Mr. Trump’s problem now is how to attract neutral voters who are still hesitant. Meanwhile, for the Democratic Party, the main impact is associated with the change of leader. This is a kind of effect. Obviously, although Vice President Kamala Harris’s political career is not considered outstanding, there are no scandals or negativity related to her. Therefore, neutral voters tend to vote for Ms. Harris more. Expert Dmitry Novikov said: “Ms. Harris’s campaign is built on positivity, not on the fierce fear that Donald Trump will come and all policies will be reversed.”

Obviously, drawing any conclusions based on the current polls is very fragile. According to data on Polymarket on August 20, the Democratic candidate leads by 4% – 51% compared to 47% for Mr. Trump. Vice President Kamala Harris’s leadership is highly appreciated in at least 3 swing states – Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. In Arizona, the candidates are basically equal. Republican candidate Donald Trump only won 2 important states, Georgia and Nevada. But by August 22, Mr. Trump had the advantage – 53% compared to 46% for Ms. Harris. Moreover, Mr. Trump is leading not only in Georgia and Nevada, but also in Arizona and Pennsylvania. It can be seen that the poll results change rapidly after only 2 days, and a good, attractive scenario about the 2024 US presidential election is still ahead.