‘G-hour’ is approaching, will the US and China learn to live in peace or will conflict recur?H
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| The outcome of the US presidential election this November is expected to shape US-China relations for years to come. (Source: SCMP) |
The crucial bilateral relationship between the world’s two superpowers is at a critical, crucial juncture. After decades of closeness and interdependence, the relationship has recently seen a dramatic shift towards competition and increased tension.
Both Republicans and Democrats fear that China’s rise is a threat to vital US interests. Beijing, on the other hand, has long argued that Washington is trying to stifle its development and deny it the status of the world’s second-largest economy.
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So the policies and approaches of the next administration will play a key role in determining whether the world’s two largest economies can find a way to coexist peacefully or will they continue to clash?
The contrasting visions of the two leading candidates — former US President and Republican nominee Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee — suggest the path ahead will be somewhat different.
Each path not only has profound implications for the interests of the two countries but is also expected to affect the entire global order.
Mr Trump has signalled a redoubled stance on China if he returns to power, with proposed policies including imposing across-the-board tariffs of up to 60% on Chinese imports – a move economists warn could have dire consequences for both US consumers and the global economy.
On the issue of Taiwan, former US President Donald Trump also expressed the view that the territory should pay Washington for its defense. This approach risks further destabilizing the already precarious relationship and could lead to escalation between the two sides.
Meanwhile, the administration of Vice President Harris and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz is expected to bring a more nuanced approach to the bilateral relationship. While Ms. Harris is likely to continue many aspects of the Biden administration’s policies, her choice of Mr. Walz as her running mate is expected to create an interesting variable.
Having taught in China more than 30 years ago, with his experience and interest in the Northeast Asian country during his time in Congress, Mr. Tim Walz is considered capable of supporting a more practical and proactive approach.
This does not mean that the two sides can return to the previous period of interaction, but rather that there needs to be recognition that dialogue and cooperation in areas of mutual interest are necessary, even in the context of strategic competition.
The implications of these somewhat different approaches are far-reaching, as the US-China relationship has become the dominant axis of global politics and economics. A further deterioration in the bilateral relationship could accelerate deglobalization, fragment the world economy into competing blocs, and increase the risk of military confrontation.
Moreover, the rivalry between the two sides could complicate global efforts to address transnational challenges such as climate change, pandemics and nuclear proliferation, all of which require some degree of cooperation between the world’s two largest economies.
Conversely, a more balanced approach could create space for selective cooperation. This, in turn, could lead to a more stable international environment, allowing progress on common challenges without ignoring fundamental differences.
Looking ahead, regardless of the election outcome, certain trends in US-China relations are likely to persist. The fundamental shift from engagement to containment is unlikely to reverse in the short term.
Technology will remain the main battleground, with dominance in areas such as artificial intelligence (AI), quantum computing and advanced semiconductors seen as crucial to gaining an edge.
The intensity and nature of this bilateral relationship, as well as the potential for cooperation in areas of mutual interest, will be significantly influenced by the policy choices made by the next White House administration.
