The Chief Inspector of Probation has warned that it is “inevitable that things will go wrong” with Labour’s plan to free prisoners early to solve the overcrowding crisis in England and Wales. Some prisoners might even see the light of day after serving just a fifth of their sentence, under Sir Keir Starmer’s scheme.

An estimated 5,500 offenders are set to be released earlier than planned as jailed rioters flood the already packed prison system, with many being released in September and October. While this does not apply to those convicted of sex offences, terrorism, domestic abuse or certain violent crimes, some violent offenders could be released under tag curfew.

Labour has stated that those released early will serve the remainder of their sentence under “strict” licensing conditions within the community. The prison and probation service have been given an eight-week window to prepare for the scheme.

Prisoners released on fixed-term sentences will be released after 40 per cent of time served, but those with the condition of being released on a tag will be let out after spending just 20 per cent of their sentence in prison. The Telegraph reports that the lowest-level offenders will be let out under this scheme, called the Home Detention Curfew.

Those prisoners released after serving a fifth of their sentence will spend at least nine hours a day at home under curfew, though the typical curfew period is 12 hours. If they commit another crime while on curfew they are hauled back to prison.

Martin Jones, who took up the role of chief inspector in March, told The Times that there are “no risk free options available”, acknowledging the additional pressure this will place on the probation service. He said that the implementation period provides the probation service with “at least a fighting chance of getting this right”, but admitted Labour’s plan to let some offenders off the hook will “inevitably” lead to more crime.

He also noted that the sheer number of offenders being released could lead to some reoffending during a period when they would otherwise be incarcerated. Speaking to the newspaper, Mr Jones said: “I think it’s inevitable, being realistic about it, that things will go wrong. I wish we could live in a perfect world where that doesn’t happen.”

He added: “What I think you should, you should start to see, at least, is that if people have to focus on those, that they start to identify where things go wrong, and they draw lessons from that quite quickly.

“I also think there’s a little bit of a numbers game to some extent, you’re rolling the dice all the time in relation to serious further offences. You know, ultimately, if you release thousands of people, a number of those cases will ultimately, sadly, there will be things that will go wrong.”

The Government has announced plans to recruit at least 1,000 new trainee probation officers by the end of March 2025. During a conversation with broadcasters in Berlin on Wednesday, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer

He attributed the current capacity crisis in UK jails partly to the lack of new prisons being built. Sir Keir has previously expressed that the decision to release prisoners early was a tough one, stating it “goes against the grain of everything I’ve ever done”.

Last month, Parliament passed regulations allowing prisoners to be automatically released after serving 40 per cent of their sentence, down from the previous 50 per cent.

As of Tuesday, there were reportedly only 100 spaces available in men’s prisons across England and Wales. After a bank holiday weekend, the prison system typically faces increased strain, which tends to subside when courts resume.

On Wednesday, Sir Keir asserted: “We’ve got to change the planning regulation so we can build the prisons we need, because they’re taking far too long, it’s far too slow, and that’s amongst the reasons we’re in the position we are.

“And, as you’d expect from an ex-chief prosecutor, people do need to go to prison, and they need to know that the law is effective.”

Earlier in the week, the Prime Minister insisted that the early release scheme is a crucial element of the Government’s strategy to deal with the aftermath of recent riots and to ensure the swift prosecution of those responsible for the unrest.