Tom Tugendhat knocked out of contest as Robert Jenrick and Kemi Badenoch remain in running for final MPs’ ballot

The three remaining candidates: James Cleverly, Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick. Photograph: Dan Kitwood/Getty Images

James Cleverly has shot to the top of the latest MPs’ vote in the Conservative leadership contest, as Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick face a battle to reach the final two.

In the third round of MP voting, Cleverly took 39 of the 120 votes, above Jenrick on 30 and Kemi Badenoch on 29. Tom Tugendhat came fourth, with 20 votes, becoming the latest candidate to be eliminated.

In the previous round, Cleverly had finished joint fourth with Tugendhat on 21 votes. He now seems a near-certainty to reach the final two in Wednesday’s final choice by MPs, with Tory members then selecting the winner in a ballot. The result will be on 2 November.

Jenrick had topped the previous two MPs’ votes and was seen as a virtual shoo-in for the last two. But after an underwhelming Conservative conference last week, his support among MPs fell from 33 to 31.

He now has a desperate fight to recover some momentum and see off Badenoch, who gained two votes, as the representative of the Tory right.

Badenoch, the shadow housing secretary, seized on Jenrick’s faltering campaign, with a spokesperson saying: “There are three candidates left in this contest, two are gaining votes and one is going backwards and los ing support. The right of the Conservative party now needs to coalesce around Kemi.”

A source in Jenrick’s campaign insisted, however, that he was “in prime position to make the final two”, stressing the endorsements he had received from MPs on the right and the centre of the party.

But with Tugendhat eliminated, Cleverly is the sole remaining centrist, and seems likely to pick up a number of the shadow security minister’s supporters. With 121 Tory MPs in all, and Rishi Sunak having said he will not vote, even gaining two more MPs would guarantee Cleverly a place in the last two.

In a tweet after the result, Cleverly thanked colleagues for their support, adding: “The job’s not finished. I’m excited to keep spreading our positive Conservative message.”

Tugendhat said: “To everyone who backed our campaign – thank you! Your energy, your ideas and your support have shown a vision of what our party could become. Our campaign has ended but our commitment to our country continues.”

In her post-vote message, Badenoch expressed her commiserations to Tugendhat and sought to play up the idea that she was the members’ favourite, saying it was “clear from every independent poll and survey, the support from members for my Renewal 2030 campaign is surging”.

With Cleverly so near to guaranteeing a space in the last two, there will be speculation he could lend some votes to Jenrick, seen as more beatable than Badenoch in a head-to-head vote by party members. However, such moves are risky, and it is likely he would want to present himself to members as the clear choice of MPs.

Cleverly’s campaign gained significant impetus during the Conservative conference in Birmingham, where he was generally considered as having performed best in set-piece events such as a Q&A in front of members, and the candidates’ speeches on the final day.

In another boost, Cleverly was formally endorsed on Monday by Mel Stride, the shadow work and pensions secretary, who was eliminated in the previous round. Stride – who said the former home secretary was the “standout candidate” – had the backing of 16 MPs, a number of whom seemingly shifted to support Cleverly.

While Jenrick was highly visible and an energetic presence at the conference, with a consistent and strongly right-leaning message that included framing the idea of quitting the European convention on human rights as “leave or remain”, he was viewed as doing slightly less well than Cleverly.

Badenoch faced some difficulties at the conference, including condemnation of comments in a radio interview in which she said maternity pay was “excessive” and people should exercise “more personal responsibility”. She also told a fringe event that up to 10% of civil servants were so bad they should be in prison.

She must now try to persuade MPs to put her through to the members’ vote, citing polling of party members which has tended to show that she is their favourite, although this seems to have narrowed recently.