Deputy PM and Ed Miliband are just two of the high-profile frontbenchers who would be booted out of Parliament if a general election were held today.
Angela Rayner and Ed Miliband could lose their seats in Parliament if a general election were held now (Image: Getty)
Angela Rayner, Ed Miliband and Yvette Cooper could be among the high-profile Labour Cabinet ministers to lose their seats if a general election were held now, a new poll has suggested.
Six frontbenchers would lose their seats, according to the survey by More in Common UK, while Nigel Farage‘s Reform would gain a vast number of seats to equal the Liberal Democrats’ success in July’s national vote.
Pollsters asked 11,000 people their voting intentions nearly six months after the 2024 General Election.
It found that Labour would lose 87 seats to the Conservatives, 67 to Reform UK and 26 to the SNP, with their Red Wall gains from this year almost entirely reversed.
Reform UK would take 72 seats, according to the poll.
Luke Tryl, executive director of More in Common UK, said: “With potentially four and a half years to go, this model is not a prediction of what would happen at the next general election.
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Several members of the Labour Cabinet could lose their seats, many to Reform UK (Image: Getty)
“Instead, however, it confirms the fragmentation of British politics that we saw in July’s election has only accelerated in Labour’s six months in office.”
Mr Tryl warned that the poll serves as a warning to the Government to deliver, after its first six months in office was blighted by controversial and unpopular policies.
He added: “While the new Government is still in its infancy, it is clear that decisions such as means testing the winter fuel allowance and other Budget measures have landed badly. The pressure from the public is now on the Government to deliver.”
Ministers who could lose their seats to Reform UK include John Healey, the Defence Secretary; Bridget Phillipson, the Education Secretary; and Jonathan Reynolds, the Business Secretary.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting, who narrowly won his seat in July by just a few hundred votes, would lose his seat to an independent candidate, according to the poll.
Bridget Phillipson would be a casualty of Reform’s growth in the North East (Image: Getty)
The poll suggested that Reform would make significant gains across the country, particularly in South Yorkshire, North Nottinghamshire, Greater Manchester and Tyne and Wear, as well as its first-ever seats in Wales.
The party would also come second in more than 200 seats.
The Conservatives would perform better than in July’s election, when they won just 121 seats in a devastating drubbing.
The poll suggests Nigel Farage’s Reform UK could gain more than 70 seats (Image: Getty)
The Tories would win an additional 102 seats but would still some way short of being able to form a majority government.
Mr Tryl added: “Our model also shows the challenge the Conservatives face.
“Despite the model’s estimate of seat gains, they would be heading for their second-worst share of the vote in history and, without making significant gains against Reform on the Right and the Liberal Democrats on the Left, would struggle to come even close to being able to form a majority Government.
“Instead, the big beneficiaries of the unpopularity of both main parties are Reform UK with our model estimating their number of seats will increase 14-fold.
“Strikingly, the party appears to have established two particularly strong regional bases of support – one in South Yorkshire/North Nottinghamshire and the other in Tyne and Wear.”
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