EXCLUSIVE: Experts warn the worst is yet to come after a 17-month run of falling shop inflation ended in November.
Keir Starmer is ruining Christmas (Image: Getty)
Families face a Christmas dinner bill that now tops £50 after Labour’s Budget “mess” was blamed for pushing up costs.
Experts warned that after a 17-month run of falling shop inflation, retailers are being forced to increase prices.
Costs of festive celebration essentials at the top nine supermarkets were analysed to find how much the average turkey with all the trimmings will cost this year.
Inflation hiked up the total to £50.06 and food prices are predicted to rise even higher after Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ tax rises.
Shadow business secretary Andrew Griffith said: “British businesses are suffering and it is now consumers who are picking up the tab for Labour’s budget mess.
“This should come as no surprise after their summer of trash talking down the economy, handing billions to their union paymasters and raising taxes to record levels.
“Labour has spent their time in office constantly reminding us all why they are anti-business and now we are all going to pay the price.”
Analysis of prices from nine leading UK supermarkets shows the average cost of a fresh turkey will cost £28.65 this year, while the second-most expensive item on the plate – pigs in blankets – could set you back around £3.29.
The average cost of a full plate, which would include turkey, pigs in blankets, potatoes, gravy, stuffing, brussels sprouts, carrots, cranberry sauce, parsnips, yorkshire puddings bread sauce, Christmas pudding and a six-pack of mince pies would set shoppers back an average of £50.06.
Economist Julian Jessop, a fellow at the Institute of Economic Affairs, said: “These figures are worrying because they show shops are beginning to feel upward pressure and this is even before the Budget measures kick in.
“Once the impact of the national insurance increases are felt from April then the impact will be greater and the costs will inevitably get passed on to the consumer.”
Last year, research by the BBC showed the basic ingredients for a Christmas dinner amounted to an average of £32.35.
Its analysis compared fewer and cheaper items, such as “frozen” turkeys rather than fresh, but it still shows the brutal reality of the economic pressure that millions of Brits face under Labour.
He added: “We are not at cost of living crisis levels but I would expect inflation to go up more by the end of the year and into 2025.”
Reducing inflation to the target of 2% was a key objective for the former Conservative Government, which it managed to achieve before leaving office in June.
But figures indicate that the numbers have rapidly spiralled out of control since Keir Starmer became Prime Minister.
According to the ONS, the figure rose from 1.7% to 2.3% in the 12 months to October, marking the highest increase since April.
In the same month, the National Living Wage will rise from £11.44 to £12.21 an hour, making a 6.7% increase.
The National Minimum Wage for 18 to 20-year-olds will also rise from £8.60 to £10.00 an hour – the largest increase in the rate on record.
Rain Newton-Smith, chief executive of the CBI said: “The rise in national insurance, the stark lowering of the threshold, caught us all off guard.
“Along with the expansion and the rise of the National Living Wage – which everyone wants to accommodate – and the potential cost of the Employment Rights Bill, they put a heavy burden on business.”
The Chancellor acknowledged she had received a lot of “feedback” over the Budget, which included £40billion of tax increases, but insisted no one had presented a “credible alternative” to her plan.
In an attempt to reassure firms she would not repeat the tax raid, Ms Reeves told the CBI annual conference the Budget had “wiped the slate clean” and public services would now have to live within their means.
However, households are warned to brace for financial strain as the impact of the tax hikes and increased living costs continues to mount.
Sebrina McCullough, director of external relations at the free debt counselling service Money Wellness said: “Unfortunately, it’s households who are going to end up shouldering the additional costs of hikes to National Insurance and wages.
This graphic shows the average cost of a Christmas dinner (Image: Express.co.uk)
“We’re already advising the people we help to make provision for even higher bills next year and believe that the cost of living
“In fact, 2025 could be the toughest year yet for thousands of households.”
She added: “Anyone struggling to make ends meet should seek free help as soon as possible because there is support available and they shouldn’t go without.”
Prices at the till could increase further still if farmers carry out their threat to strike over the Labour Government’s inheritance tax changes and accelerated withdrawal of subsidies.
The threat to stop food production has raised concerns about supermarket shelves lying empty this winter or food shortages pushing up prices amid potential panic-buying.
Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, warned that if farmers follow through on their threat to strike, it has the potential to push up fresh food prices further, at a time when price increases have been stabilising.
She said: “Although the UK relies on imports for roughly 40% of its food, a big disruption in the supply of domestically farmed produce would lead to gaps on shelves and this situation could be exacerbated by panic buying by customers.
“Big grocers could mitigate the effects by importing more goods from abroad. However, there are also concerns that some groups of farmers may resort to blockading ports to stop imports, tactics which could cause temporary spikes in food prices.”
Ms Streeter said the threat of strikes comes at a time when there are already concerns over the impact of US President-elect Donald Trump’s tariffs on the price of imports.
She explained: “The dollar has strengthened in expectation that inflation and interest rates will be higher in the US. This will have a knock-on effect on the price of goods bought on the global markets, like wheat, cocoa or coffee as they are priced in dollars.
“Shoppers have already had to get used to some painful price increases and the prospect of fresh hikes will be hard to swallow, especially coming at such an expensive time of the year for consumers.”
John Bryson, Professor of Enterprise and Economic Geography at the University of Birmingham, added that farmers are having to adjust not only to inheritance tax changes, but Labour’s minimum wage increase, National Insurance hike and workers’ rights plan.
He added: ‘Here are three shocks working together and the outcome will be inflationary as well as reducing the resilience of this country’s food system.
“Nevertheless, it is also important to remember this country’s food ecosystem relies on all involved in logistics, food-related retailing and hospitality and that all these sectors have seen a Government-imposed increase in their overheads. This is madness.”
Professor Bryson warned: “The UK’s future is now extremely uncertain and much of this uncertainty comes from actions taken by this Labour Government.”
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