New forecast shows that if a general election were held tomorrow, Labour would lose its majority and Reform UK would double its number of seats.
The model shows Reform UK would double its number of seats (Image: Election Maps UK)
A new forecast shows Labour would lose its majority and Reform UK would double its number of seats if a general election were held tomorrow.
The Nowcast model reveals that Sir Keir Starmer’s party would lose 106 seats, which would reduce the party’s total to just 305 MPs. This is below the 326 seats needed for a majority.
If an election were to be held now, Labour would likely need to form a coalition government.
The new forecasting also shows that the Conservatives would gain a staggering 93 seats, giving them a total of 214 MPs. This would bring the party’s vote share up to 26.5%, just 1.4 points behind Labour.
The Liberal Democrats would lose three seats, bringing them down to 69 MPs, with the SNP gaining six seats, Plaid Cymru losing one and the Green Party remaining on four.
However, Nigel Farage’s party, Reform UK, is forecast to double its number of MPs from five to 10.
The seats Reform UK would gain are Bradford South, Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes, Amber Valley, Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr, and Llanelli.
The Nowcast model for November also predicted that Mr Farage’s party would hold onto the five seats it won in July’s General Election.
The current Reform constituencies are:
Clacton
Nigel Farage’s seat, which he won by 8,405 votes.
Ashfield
Lee Anderson’s constituency, where he has a majority of 5,509.
Great Yarmouth
Rupert Lowe’s constituency – he won by 1,426 votes.
Boston and Skegness
Richard Tice’s seat, which he won by 2,010 votes.
South Basildon and East Thurrock
James McMurdock won this seat by just 98 votes.
Trending
Reform UK MPs at the Farmers’ Rally last week (Image: Getty)
The new election maps follow a petition calling for a general election that surpassed two million signatures on Monday.
During a grilling on ITV’s This Morning, Sir Keir ruled out an election.
Michael Westwood, the man behind the petition, wrote on the website: “I would like there to be another general election.
“I believe the current Labour Government have gone back on the promises they laid out in the lead up to the last election.”
Most Popular Comments