Just as the EU is shifting dramatically to the Right in terms of immigration, Britain appears to be doubling down on its open-door migration policy, with the potential for traffic to divert to the UK. Poland sent shockwaves through the bloc in recent days by suspending the long-established right to asylum off the back of weaponised movement into the country from Belarus.

This would have been less shocking 18 months ago when the nationalist Law and Justice party was in power. But with pro-EU centrist and Brussels blue-eyed boy Donald Tusk at the helm – and with the new Polish PM effectively telling the EU to stuff it if the bloc doesn’t like it – Warsaw’s move was a political hand grenade.

Still, the fact Tusk felt confident enough to do this also speaks volumes. The latest EU migration pact – a deal neither Hungary nor Poland will agree to by the way – is in part a burden-sharing attempt to fix illegal immigration, all the while acknowledging the failings of the 2015 “we can manage this” approach taken by then-German Chancellor, Angela Merkel.

Since then, Hard Right parties have mushroomed across Europe, Donald Tusk is standing for a third time as a US Presidential candidate, Brexit happened, Marine Le Pen is the front-runner to become the next French President, Giorgia Meloni is Prime Minister of Italy, and Geert Wilders is in government in the Netherlands. Even cuddly Denmark has broken bad.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen this week even told her immigration commissioner to “steer reflections on operational solutions that will help to counter illegal migration”, including identifying “designated safe third countries” and “the idea of developing return hubs outside the EU”.

This comes as Italy’s own Rwanda-like deal with Albania comes into force. Even though it was reported that Sir Keir Starmer had shown interest in a similar deal for the UK, in reality the Rwanda scheme – gimmick though it was – has been junked, with little to no evidence that the precedent of high immigration set by the Tories will change anytime soon.

I don’t buy any nonsense that Labour sees asylum seekers and new arrivals as future voters, so much as an open-door policy is now part of the DNA of both major parties, and is viewed as a cheap-and-cheerful way to boost GDP. Even though a guest work programme would have worked better, mass immigration is viewed as the easy solution to Britain’s labour market shortages.

While Labour has committed to getting a handle on small boat crossings, it doesn’t inspire confidence when over 10,000 people crossed the Channel in Labour’s first two-and-half-months in office, and when over 700 people crossed on September 21 alone.

Ask yourself, what incentive does Labour have to radically reduce illegal and regular migration? Sure, Reform UK is breathing down its neck but – given the parliamentary arithmetic, the fact the next election is slated for 2029, and how many in the Labour base back mass immigration – does the Labour leadership really care?

Long-term, of course, back-tracking on migration pledges by Labour could be a big boost to Nigel Farage and whoever wins the Tory leadership contest. Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick are both viewed as immigration hawks, with Jenrick having committed to leaving the European Convention on Human Rights and proposing an annual migration cap.

However, the fact both candidates are associated with the last Conservative government – and its record rate of immigration – somewhat undermines their respective pitches, however sincere they are. This leaves the door open for Farage, whose Reform UK capitalised so heavily on Tory failures to bring legal and illegal immigration numbers down.

But the more immediate observation perhaps is that if Labour in fact goes soft on immigration while the EU shifts to the Right (even former Brexit negotiator and now-French PM, Michel Barnier, has called for a moratorium on immigration) then numbers to the UK could swell as traffic – both legal and illegal – is redirected from mainland Europe.

There are two key things to bear in mind about all this. The Labour government is looking for a quick fix to Britain’s growth problems. And it is desperate to get a business community looking for workers, but fearful of tax rises, on side. So what is the betting all the tough talk on immigration withers and dies? A boon for Farage and perhaps the Tories, but what will the net effect be on housing and social cohesion by 2029?

Immigrants themselves are blameless, following instead the kind of self-interest any right-minded person would show if they felt a better life awaited them. But one cannot be blind to what is likely to transpire if Labour diverges from Europe at this pivotal moment. A country already fearful of immigration numbers could be about to see things step up a gear and then some.