Delusion and short-term relief brought a strange buzz to Birmingham, with the leadership race still wide open

The leadership candidates on the final day of the Conservative conference, from left: Kemi Badenoch, Robert Jenrick, James Cleverly, Tom Tugendhat. Photograph: Christopher Thomond/The Guardian

Three months on from almost their worst ever election loss, Conservative MPs were curiously gleeful at their Birmingham conference this week.

Denial about the scale of the defeat, exaggeration of Labour’s teething troubles in government and delusion about the party’s chances of returning quickly were widespread.

“I’d never have said this, but I think we’ll be back in five years. I don’t know if Keir [Starmer] will even last that long,” one centrist former cabinet minister told sceptical onlookers.

The four leadership candidates appeared to be complicit in the mood of groundless optimism. Of the contenders, only James Cleverly offered an apology to the party and the country for the turmoil in the Conservatives in the run-up to the general election. But his main message was about delivering conservatism “with a smile”, to rousing applause in the auditorium.

Kemi Badenoch, the darling of the right in the contest, argued the result had been so bad because the party had governed too much in the centre, while Robert Jenrick claimed the party’s problems could be solved by resuming the legally troubled Rwanda scheme and quitting the European convention on human rights.

MPs explained that some of the Boris Johnson-style boosterism was born of relief at not being wiped out and the end of Rishi Sunak’s unpopular tenure. With the inevitable defeat of July out of the way, the race was on to position themselves in the winning leadership camp and plot their way into shadow jobs.

“Most of us who are left are just happy to have kept our seats. And when you’ve only got 121 MPs, there’s a big chance of shaping the future of the party and getting a decent job,” said one MP, adding: “Unless you’re really hopeless.”

Another former minister said: “A heavy defeat that we have all been dreading for two or three years is no longer hanging over us. The only way is up. There are more party members here than usual and they are engaged in the leadership contest. At fringe events, instead of getting questions from industry associations, they’re from local members.”

Another was more cautious about the celebratory atmosphere, warning that it could feel very different in a year’s time when Labour is more entrenched in government and an election is still four years away.

“I think part of the better atmosphere is from some MPs arriving here and being like: ‘Look! I’m alive!’” one new MP said. “But I think with that comes a very difficult thing: to confront that we are really not relevant any more. There is a buzz around the conference now because we’re involved in choosing a leader. But the reality is that no one cares what we think for at least another three years. I can’t imagine what next year will be like.”

The conference was haunted by many ghosts of the last administration – with the former chief schemer Gavin Williamson telling colleagues he is planning to focus on children’s charities and wildlife conservation from the backbenches.

George Osborne, the ex-chancellor, watched the leadership speeches from the press gallery under the guise of being a “podcaster”.

“It’s like the night of the living dead in here,” said one Tory aide of the Spectator party, where the former cabinet minister Michael Gove held court as the new editor of the rightwing magazine, surrounded by formerly powerful colleagues.

The candidates had a frantic schedule of glad-handing activists, delivering stump speeches at drinks parties and signing unusual merchandise. The candidates were eager to showcase their supporters; the former trade secretary Anne-Marie Trevelyan was wandering round with a fake Tom Tugendhat neck tattoo, while a corridor was cleared for Jenrick and his wife, Michal Berkner, to walk down with a huge entourage of MPs behind them.

Jenrick appeared to be so much considered the likely successor by some in the party hierarchy that he was moved to Rishi Sunak’s suite in the Hyatt after the former prime minister left. The party insisted that was less to do with a presumption of victory and more because he had previously been next to Badenoch’s suite and the two camps could hear each other through the walls.

Badenoch, the target of an unofficial “stop Kemi” campaign among MPs, tried to engineer a move of her own to persuade centrist colleagues to back her to be one of the last two candidates, with Jenrick.

“She picked up a bit of support,” one said. “Until the maternity pay thing. It just reminded us that she would be risky.”

The assumption among Tories in Birmingham was that Tugendhat would be knocked out in the next round of voting next week, triggering an almightly battle for his MP backers. If they move en masse to Cleverly, who is the next most centrist candidate, it could keep Badenoch out of the last two.

Allies of Jenrick have been predicting with confidence – some would say misplaced – that Badenoch will not make the final. “We’ll look forward to saying goodbye to her next week,” one said.

“Immigration aside, Rob is more centrist than Kemi on lots of issues. She’s more of a libertarian,” a Jenrick ally said, pointing to Badenoch’s opposition to Sunak’s smoking ban.

Allies of Sunak, however, were scathing of Jenrick’s time in his government and said Badenoch had, by comparison, been a team player. “Rob stabbed Rishi in the back,” a former Sunak adviser said. “Kemi was never actively helpful but neither did she try to undermine the prime minister.”

With such a focus on the contest, a former cabinet minister said many MPs – and the candidates – had not yet begun to acknowledge and process the reality of opposition. “They take solace from the fact Labour has had a bumpy few months,” they said. “But they’re delusional. The result was an unequivocal rejection of everything we stood for.”

Another said they felt the sense of optimism was getting out of hand. “A few people are getting carried away and saying Labour will only last five years,” said a former Tory MP who lost their seat in July. “Even if Labour screw things up badly enough, we’d need to win 40 seats off the Lib Dems and there’s no way we’ll do that when they’re not in government.”

At numerous fringe events, MPs and others argued that a “properly Conservative” agenda of quitting the ECHR, low taxes and culture wars would eliminate the threat from Reform and allow the Tories to sweep back into power against a weak and divided Labour government.

At one event, the Orpington MP, Gareth Bacon, complained that the last Conservative government had “governed from the left”, and this was the only reason Reform did so well – not mentioning the 60 or so seats his party lost to the Liberal Democrats.

Some grassroots members may agree there is a need to swing right – with noisy approval for Badenoch at her fringe events and conference speech, and for Jenrick’s enthusiasm for leaving the ECHR. But the more centrist and still pro-Brexit Cleverly got a similarly warm reception, and appreciation for acknowledging the party’s failings at the election.

The party is now in advanced talks to move the Tory conference from Birmingham to Newcastle next year. With the race now in effect a three-way battle between Badenoch, Jenrick and Cleverly, it is still wide open as to who will be attempting to give the Tories a fresh start in the north-east in 2025 – and whether anyone in the country will be listening.