Former first minister makes prediction as senior political figures reflect on 10th anniversary of referendum

Nicola Sturgeon led the SNP’s part in the Scottish independence Yes campaign as party deputy in 2014. Photograph: Murdo MacLeod/The Guardian

Nicola Sturgeon has predicted that Scotland will become an independent country as part of a “wider shake-up” of the UK, as senior figures across Scottish politics reflect on the 10th anniversary of the referendum.

With support for independence stabilised at just below 50%, the former first minister told BBC Scotland News: “I believe that, perhaps as part of a wider shake-up of UK governance, the reunification of Ireland, perhaps, more autonomy in Wales, that I think we will see Scotland become an independent country.”

Sturgeon, who led the Scottish National party’s part in the yes campaign as party deputy in 2014, succeeded Alex Salmond as leader when he resigned after the referendum defeat. She expressed frustration at the impasse reached with Westminster in the intervening decade over whether Holyrood has the right to call a second poll on independence.

“I came up against a brick wall of Westminster democracy denial in refusing the right of the Scottish people to choose their own future,” she said. “Do I wish I had found a way around that? Yes, but that was the situation I faced. Had that right to choose been secured, I believe Scotland would have voted yes.”

Douglas Alexander the UK trade minister, who campaigned for the pro-union Better Together campaign in 2014, however, said the gener al election result proved that Scotland “genuinely has moved on … from a debate where we think the only way to see the changes we want is further devolution”.

Speaking to BBC Radio Scotland, Alexander said: “To be fair to the 45% [who voted yes in 2014], a number of them genuinely and sincerely believed a vote for independence was a way to secure change and what we actually saw on July 4 was an overwhelming desire for change being channelled into vote for the Labour party not the SNP.”

While 18 September 2014 was “a hinge of history”, Alexander said: “Many of us want to leave behind the rancour, the division, the polarisation that has characterised a lot of the last decade and get on with the practical changes most of us want to see rebuilding our health service, improving our education system and getting the economy back on track.”

The former Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson, who also campaigned for Better Together a decade ago, said Sturgeon has squandered an opportunity to secure a second referendum by seeming to capitalise on the chaos of Brexit too quickly.
She told BBC Scotland News: “Her appetite to go so fast, so hard and so early took that opportunity away from her.”